throughout the latter stages of his re-election campaign, president bush insisted the first national iraqi election since saddam was deposed would take place in january 2005.  on november 21, 2004, iraq's election committee set january 30, 2005 as the date on which iraqis will choose a 275-seat national assembly, a kurdish national assembly and 18 provincial governing consuls.   that is also the last day by which such an election must be held in accordance with iraqi law. 

ayatollah sistani (whom i believe to be one of the shrewdest politicians in the world) is backing that schedule through proxies.  the shia majority are opposed to delaying the vote.  the two largest sunni parties would prefer the voting be delayed.  the kurds have flip-flopped but most recently seem to be backing the january 30th date.

im curious to know how many of you believe the january 30th date is realistic and your reasoning.