bringing the fallouja insurgents under control will advance the possibility of iraqi elections one giant step forward.  of all the groups in iraq, the one that has the most to win and least to lose--the shia--has been calling for elections for over a year through its grand ayatollah sistani.

which makes maysan--a shiite majority province nominally under control of british forces in southeastern iraq--even more of a conundrum because it may ultimately prove to be the final and most problematic impediment to the iraqi election dynamic.  the fiercely independent amarah tribe who reside in maysan aren't hussein holdouts; saddam never fully succeeded in sublimating them.  they barely tolerate the brits (who wisely seem to have decided not to push the issue).  it's not an islaamist or ideological issue.  the people of mayson just flatout simply refuse to accept the idea of being controlled by baghdad.

a front-page article in the los angeles times 11/18/04 described what happened when brig. abdul hussain mahmoud badar showed up the previous week to head the new iraqi national guard's  73rd brigade.  three locals told him to leave or die.  badar left.

"It was a message from all the Amarah people," said Hassan Nagem, a 29-year-old biologist from this dust-choked provincial capital of about 400,000 people. "We fear the national guard may become the new Saddam because they receive their orders from Baghdad. So we will pick our own leaders."

what goes on in the city of amarah stays in amarah unseen directly by 550 strong british unit that restricts its patrols to the city's perimeter. tribal leaders rule and feud with each other, control smuggling of drugs, people and anything else worth moving across the border with iran. 

At least in Basra, we can claim we liberated the people," said Maj. Harry Lloyd of the 1st Battalion Welsh Guards, the British contingent now responsible for security in the province. "But by the time we reached Amarah, the view of the locals was: 'What are you doing here? We don't need you.' "

iraqi national guard and police units are extraneous and know it, so they do very little--and even that only grudgingly. 

"How many cars have you stopped today?" a British soldier demanded of a national guardsman at a checkpoint one afternoon last week. "None," the Iraqi replied with a smile, sheepishly looking on as the soldier demonstrated how to search a car.

part of the problem is jobs.  there argent any.  there are a lot of unemployed young men who are also the province's main export...as fighters in the sadr militia.

working with the british troops, reconstruction officials are trying to create jobs, hiring residents to sweep streets and clean sewers.  the local brick factory is back at work, and the brits are hoping it can begin supplying bricks to other locations where they're needed. 

on the other hand, only 3 of 39 school reconstruction projects are currently active.  a newly installed generator is ready to go into service when and if technicians can be assured of returning alive from the site.

in case you're wondering why if the amarah tribespeople, with their reputation for resisting other authority, are still in  their 'leave us alone and let live' mode, these two quotes may be all the explanation required.

"No, no. We don't want the British to leave," said Hassin Arhayf Jassam, a member of the Provincial Governing Council who found himself pulled aside in the lottery of another British checkpoint on a side road last week. "Not yet."

"Even Sadr knows it is impossible to live here without the British right now," said Alaa Mohsin, 35, a grade-school English teacher, as he stood in the midday dust kicked up by a passing British patrol. "Some of the old Baathists are still around.

like sistani, the amarah realize the wisdom of letting problems be taken care of by less problematic proxies. Link