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No Child Left Behind At Age 65
Published on February 17, 2005 By kingbee In Current Events

paul o'neill--former bush administration secretary of the treasury--is an interesting guy  who's proposing an intriguing alternative to social security as we know it. 

instead of trying to fix the existing program by throwing trillions of dollars at it with no guarantee of success, o'neill suggests we create a savings account for every us citizen--funding it with an initial deposit of $2000 on the date of birth.  an additional $2000 would be added on each subsequent birthday til the child reaches 18. 

assuming a 6% annual interest rate —according to o'neill,  the worst return for a 25-year investor in the stock market from 1929 before the crash to 2004 was an average of 6% a year--every us citizen would have  $65,520 in the bank at age 18.

o'neill says without any additional contributions, the account would be worth $1,013,326 (using that same 6% interest rate) 47 years later on the owner's 65th birthday.

as he explains it..."pre-funding" for of old age resolves the long-term financing problem for both Social Security and Medicare, allowing for the gradual replacement of programs like Supplemental Security Income and Medicaid and food stamps and housing aid for those over age 65. To make this work, the savings account money would need to be invested — my suggestion would be through so-called index funds. The administrative costs would be practically nothing because there's no need for a huge separate tax collection bureaucracy; the money would come from the general revenues of the U.S. government."

unlike even bush's 'ownership' fix, 100% of these savings would be owned by the individual.  every person born after the plan went into effect would have an account; those already alive would grandfather out social security.

more importantly, o'neill's plan would provide equal coverage for every american unlike social security which doesn't provide equal coverage to dependents such as stay-at-home moms or dads. in short, it would provide an everyone fortunate enuff to be born in the us with one more very substantial birthright.

can we afford to do something like this? according to o'neill, we cant afford not to. :

"If we began to do this now, the first-year cost would be $8 billion; that is $2,000 times the roughly 4 million children born each year. The second year would cost $16 billion and so on until we were contributing $2,000 per year to a savings account for every child from birth until age 18. When fully implemented, the cost would be $144 billion per year. To put this $144 billion per year into context, this year's combined spending for Social Security and Medicare will exceed $750 billion.

My answer is, in a federal budget of more than $2 trillion, we can certainly afford it. In an economy that will be upward of $12 trillion this year, we can afford it. By the time this plan was fully implemented, we would be living in an economy of $20 trillion. We can afford it."

"
Comments (Page 1)
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on Feb 17, 2005
You make a pretty good case for it yourself!!

My biggest question would be, does that get paid as a lump sum upon retirement of the "owner"?

If so, could we afford the infusion of that kind of revenue every month. $1,013,326 x the number of people retiring that month, is a lot for an economy to obsorb, especially if a lot of people retire all at once in a local area.
on Feb 17, 2005
I don't see a difference here. If the government guarentees 6% return on their investment, isn't that just the same as we have now, with them bulking up insufficient pay-in to make it a livable wage? Frankly, they CAN'T guarentee enough interest through investment without guarenteeing making up for the failure, can they?

If so, isn't that just what they are doing now, i.e. saying they'll make up the rest if the actual earning are insufficient?

The problem is that people can't live on 2 or even $4000 dollars a year in the US, and nothing beyond that is really guarenteed. When people retire at 65 and live to be 90, and expend SERIOUS amounts of cash to make it that long, you are looking at a minimum of $30,000 a year as a subsistance wage.

At age 18, you've put together enough to live for maybe 2 years, considering inflation. For the 35 years mentioned, that the expense is like a million bucks, at the value of the dollar when the person actually retires.

How is this any different than the government simply paying our retirement?


on Feb 17, 2005

Good straw man, but serious questions arise.  First and foremost is what about immigrants?  We do have a lot of them.  I think Legal immigration is between 100k and 200k a year.

Next, as Baker pointed out, while $1m today sounds like a lot, it wont in 60 years.  Simple inflation.

Another, since the government has its grimy paws on the money, what is to prevent them from grabbing the money during a 'fiscal crises'.  Those are always around it seems.

But it is a good starting point.  However, the achilees heel here is that - 1, it would work with some changes, and  - 2, congress will never give up the power they now have.

on Feb 17, 2005
I dunno, to me it sounds like what we have now, i.e.: It seems like it would work, and if it doesn't we'll pay the tab.

In this case, though, it relies heavily on that 6% interest provided by "so-called index funds.", and that cost of living and inflation won't overtake that 6%. If they realize in 20 years 6% isn't gonna be enough, what do they do, overhaul the system again? Just decide to tax more and pay the extra?

To me it seems like more of the same.
on Feb 17, 2005
My biggest question would be, does that get paid as a lump sum upon retirement of the "owner"?

If so, could we afford the infusion of that kind of revenue every month


i can't speak for o'neill, but it seems likely this would work the same way as an inheritance held in trust until the heir's 65th birthday. while i guess there's a possibility of immediate mass liquidation, do you think that many 65-year-olds would blithely engage in drunken sailor spree spending? (i hadda resist excluding myself from that rhetorical question hahahaha)

i get the sense (perhaps very incorrectly) you may have a concern about whether the average person is capable of responsibly handling a sizeable lump-sum distribution.
on Feb 17, 2005
I don't see a difference here. If the government guarentees 6% return on their investment, isn't that just the same as we have now, with them bulking up insufficient pay-in to make it a livable wage? Frankly, they CAN'T guarentee enough interest through investment without guarenteeing making up for the failure, can they?

If so, isn't that just what they are doing now, i.e. saying they'll make up the rest if the actual earning are insufficient?

The problem is that people can't live on 2 or even $4000 dollars a year in the US, and nothing beyond that is really guarenteed. When people retire at 65 and live to be 90, and expend SERIOUS amounts of cash to make it that long, you are looking at a minimum of $30,000 a year as a subsistance wage.


im not sure if im misunderstanding your questions or if you're misunderstanding the concept. the latter seems far less likely but just to clarify things...

the government isn't going to guarantee any rate of return--or anything except funding each person's account by depositing $2000 a year for the first 18 years of his or her life. o'neill claims the cumulative value of the account on a person's 19th birthday will be over 65,000 based on the performance of the market during any 25 year period between 1929 and 2004. continued investment of that amount until the owner's 65th birthday will--using the same historical data as a basis for projection--result in the account's value exceeding 1,000,000.

while noone can guarantee what the future holds, if his data is correct, the program could comfortably survive a crash of the magnitude of 1929.
on Feb 17, 2005
it relies heavily on that 6% interest provided by "so-called index funds.",


this is the part about which i have some reservations--altho ill be the first to admit i have a very sketchy understanding of index fund investing. unless im totally clueless, it seems to me index funds arent appropriate nor able to sustain investment on this kinda scale.
on Feb 17, 2005
First and foremost is what about immigrants? We do have a lot of them. I think Legal immigration is between 100k and 200k a year


o'neill addresses this question thusly:

Some may say, "This is a terrible idea because more illegal immigrants will come here to get this benefit for their children." I say hogwash. The question suggests we should make our country a less desirable place in order to reduce illegal immigration. The proposition is absurd.
on Feb 17, 2005
Yeah, I think I get it, but I guess I'm not making myself clear. Sleepy.

Right now, people pay over time, and the government eventually covers the rest lost due to inflation, etc. In this, if I understand correctly, they are just taking the money you would have eventually paid in, and give it to you up front to jump start the investment.

Given that there is no guarantee it will be enough, isn't that like a $65k gamble on their part? To me, it is like loaning someone 65k, letting them pay it back basically interest free, and then telling them if they don't have enough when the time comes you'll still take up the slack for them.

I mean the government is giving you "now" dollars, getting back "later" dollars, and may even have to pay out extra to take up the slack. I dunno, maybe I don't get it. Insomnia beats the hell out of ya the next afternoon. Mind... growing cloudy...
on Feb 17, 2005
if I understand correctly, they are just taking the money you would have eventually paid in, and give it to you up front to jump start the investment.

Given that there is no guarantee it will be enough, isn't that like a $65k gamble on their part? To me, it is like loaning someone 65k, letting them pay it back basically interest free, and then telling them if they don't have enough when the time comes you'll still take up the slack for them.

I mean the government is giving you "now" dollars, getting back "later" dollars, and may even have to pay out extra to take up the slack


if i'm reading o'neill correctly, he's not suggesting a loan, but an outright grant. the amount at risk (if you want to qualify it that way) would be $36K per person. perhaps i'm missing something because im not sure why you think this would entail a payback to the government.

while there would obviously be a need for governmental administration and oversight, there would be a favorable tradeoff. as those of us born too soon to participate faded away, so would the need for government to collect taxes to fund social security, medicare, etc., not to mention the costs involved in dispensing payments, determining eligibility, etc.
on Feb 17, 2005
get the sense (perhaps very incorrectly) you may have a concern about whether the average person is capable of responsibly handling a sizeable lump-sum distribution.


It's not a question of how fast they spend it, it's a simple matter of cash infusion. $1,013,326 x the number of people retiring that month. Whether it is spent, put in the bank, or invested, it is put into the economic system of the community. Simple supply and demand here. There would be a huge increase in the supply of money, causing demand to skyrocket, prices would increase dramatically.
on Feb 18, 2005
"if i'm reading o'neill correctly, he's not suggesting a loan, but an outright grant. the amount at risk (if you want to qualify it that way) would be $36K per person."


Sorry, was figuring the assumed interest in.

I was also assuming that the person would continue salary withholdings to keep the pool deep for future generations. If not, isn't this just retirement welfare? Where is the money for the $36k coming from?
on Feb 19, 2005
I was also assuming that the person would continue salary withholdings to keep the pool deep for future generations. If not, isn't this just retirement welfare? Where is the money for the $36k coming from?


the answer to your 2nd question is partially provided in a quote from o'neill above (" When fully implemented, the cost would be $144 billion per year. To put this $144 billion per year into context, this year's combined spending for Social Security and Medicare will exceed $750 billion"). in other words, the bulk would come from taxes but would actually cost us all less in the long run. two more quotes from o'neill's proposition: "It solves the long-term financing problem for both Social Security and Medicare, allowing for the gradual replacement of programs like Supplemental Security Income and Medicaid and food stamps and housing aid for those over age 65," and "You might ask, "Can we afford it?" My answer is, in a federal budget of more than $2 trillion, we can certainly afford it. In an economy that will be upward of $12 trillion this year, we can afford it. By the time this plan was fully implemented, we would be living in an economy of $20 trillion. We can afford it."

whether you look at it as 'welfare'or as a national birthright is a matter or perspective and definition. the more important question (it seems to me) is not how it's perceived, but how well it will work.
on Feb 19, 2005
I'm not crazy about the idea as a conservative. To me it takes a system where you at least FEEL like you are earning your own retirement, and changes to a trust fund system without nearly enough money to get you through retirement.

To me, it would make more sense if they did the 2k a year into a private account, and we paid social security withholding to keep the system fluid. That would be akin to a pre-payment to jump start the processes of investment, and people would still be earning their retirement by keeping the system fluid through witholdings.

Kind of like taking out an interest free loan of 2k every year til 18, a processes when you later contribute to through withholdings. That gives you the money now to invest.

I don't like the idea as it is, but honestly I could see how it could be worked into something interesting. As long as it doesn't simply become a handout. I see a difference between paying through withholdings and paying through blind taxes, personally.
on Feb 19, 2005
changes to a trust fund system without nearly enough money to get you through retirement


if o'neill's assumptions about the market are valid, a husband and wife would have over 2 million bucks on which to retire. without any other assets and allowing for inflation, that seems like a pretty good chunk of change.

To me, it would make more sense if they did the 2k a year into a private account, and we paid social security withholding to keep the system fluid. That would be akin to a pre-payment to jump start the processes of investment, and people would still be earning their retirement by keeping the system fluid through witholdings


o'neill seems to be saying there are significant savings to be realized by junking the cost of withholding and the mechanism for accomplishing it.

if that's not the case, having the government seed the accounts in anticipation of having $36k paid back by witholding from wages earned prior to one's 65th birthday still sounds like a much more practical system than the one currently in place or any of the other fixes ive heard proposed.
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